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The Lipstick Effect and Other Recession Indicators 

The IMF has stopped short of calling a global recession, but it has warned that trade tensions, especially those triggered by Trump’s new tariffs, are pushing economic uncertainty to "literally off the charts" (an actual quote). Stock markets have already dropped, and consumer confidence is taking a hit.

On social media, the response has been a mix of humour and anxiety, with people sharing tongue in cheek "#RecessionIndicators". This is everything from Klarna being available on takeaways, to discussion over hemlines*. But how can we really tell when a recession is coming?

*The hemline index suggests that when skirt hemlines are shorter, the economy is booming. Conversely, longer skirts suggest a declining economy. In simple terms, the shorter the skirt, the stronger the economy.

We’ve pulled together evidence-backed economic and cultural indicators to help make sense of what might lie ahead.

What actually is a recession indicator?

A recession indicator is a measure or sign that suggests the economy might be shrinking. Economists typically look for two consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP (gross domestic product), but there are many warning signs that can show up before that.

These indicators are either economic (based on hard data) or cultural (based on shifts in behaviour and sentiment).

What are the most reliable economic indicators?

• Inverted yield curve: When short-term interest rates are higher than long-term ones, it signals investors are worried about the future. It has accurately predicted past US recessions.

• Rising unemployment: A surge in job losses is one of the clearest signs the economy is under stress.

• Consumer confidence: If people feel less optimistic about the economy, they tend to spend less. A sharp drop in confidence often predicts downturns.

• Manufacturing slowdowns: If factory output starts falling, it usually means demand is shrinking across the board.

• Corporate earnings: If big companies start missing earnings targets, it can suggest reduced consumer and business spending.

What are some of the more unusual cultural indicators?

The Lipstick Index: First coined during the 2001 recession, this theory says that during tough times, people skip big splurges and opt for small luxuries instead. Lipstick sales rise.

The Men’s Underwear Index: Popularised by former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, the theory is that sales of men’s underwear dip during recessions as people delay non-essential purchases.

Recession Pop: In music, downturns often coincide with either deeply escapist or hyperrealist themes. Think Charli XCX now, or Kesha in 2008.

Overdressing for everything: Workwear and corporate looks suddenly becoming everyday outfits can be a reaction to economic anxiety and job insecurity.

So should we panic?

Not yet. The IMF says global recession is not on the cards, but caution is justified.

In short: watch how people spend, how they feel, and yes, maybe even how they dress.

Do you need a TV licence to watch your favourite show?

The cost of a UK TV licence rose in April 2025, and now sits at £174.50 a year, increasing in line with inflation.

This has reignited public debate over whether we still need a TV licence at all, especially as the way we watch and pay for content continues to shift.

So, do you need a TV licence to watch Netflix or Disney+?

According to the UK Government, you do not need a TV licence to watch on-demand streaming services such as Netflix, Disney+, Amazon Prime Video or All 4. However, you do need one if you:

• Watch or record live TV on any channel or platform (including YouTube)

• Watch or stream BBC iPlayer, even on demand

Unless you're streaming BBC content or watching live TV, you're not legally required to have a licence. But many platforms now include live channels or simulcasts, so it's worth checking how you're watching.

What does the licence fee pay for?

The licence fee helps fund the full range of BBC services, including:

📺 TV programmes on BBC One, BBC Two, and other BBC channels

📻 Radio services such as BBC Radio 1, Radio 4 and local BBC stations

🖥️ Online platforms like BBC News, BBC iPlayer, and BBC Sounds

It also helps fund:

• Educational content and children’s programming

• Regional and national news services

• Broadcast infrastructure and emergency alert systems

Labour's Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy recently confirmed that the licence fee will remain in place for now. She ruled out switching to general taxation, despite proposals from both Labour and previous Conservative governments to overhaul the funding model.

The BBC’s charter is due for renewal in 2027, which could trigger a major shift in how the BBC is funded. Options that have been floated include:

• A tiered membership fee

• Adding ads to BBC content

• Charging for radio or iPlayer

• New taxes on streaming platforms

How many people are still paying it?

The number of people paying the licence fee dropped to 23.9 million in 2024, down from 24.4 million the year before. Around 500,000 households cancelled their licence last year.

Can anyone get a free or reduced licence?

Yes. You're eligible for a free TV licence if:

• You are over 75 and receive Pension Credit

You can get a 50% discount if:

• You are blind or severely sight-impaired

Some people in residential care, supported housing or sheltered accommodation can also get a discounted rate of £7.50 per year if they are retired, disabled or over 60.

What happens if you don't pay?

Watching or recording live TV without a licence, or using BBC iPlayer without one, is a criminal offence. You could be:

• Fined up to £1,000, plus legal costs and compensation

• Prosecuted and potentially given a criminal record

TV Licensing does not have the power to enter your home without permission or a warrant, but they do send enforcement officers and issue fines if you are found to be watching or recording live TV illegally.

In light of everything happening right now, we’ve seen a sharp increase in demand for workplace financial wellbeing sessions.

It’s something we’ve been offering for over three years, but this month especially, we’ve had a rise in teams reaching out for support — whether it’s HR, women’s networks, or early-career groups.

We’ve developed a 45-minute workshop designed specifically for this moment — positive, practical, shame-free, and focused on what people can control.

Why Now?

With the economy in flux and pension values falling, employees are understandably anxious about their financial futures and employers have an opportunity to offer positive support.

Available sessions

• What is going on with the economy (and what can I actually do about it?)

• Building Financial Confidence: Tools to Feel More in Control

• Financial Wellbeing at Every Stage

They’re built for real life — inclusive, honest, and designed to meet people where they are.

We also have available sessions with other trusted experts

• Getting Mortgage Ready (with our trusted mortgage broker)

• Pensions, Decoded (with an FCA-regulated expert)

Previous clients

"Brilliant session - really enjoyed it. perfect amount of content to make it engaging but makes you want to take action.”

“The event was fantastic. It was relevant and covered something for everyone, no matter what age you were. Alice was a great speaker - very clear and concise”

Format

• 45–60 minute live session (online or in-person)

• Anonymous Q&A + takeaways

• Bespoke content available

Who Are They For

All-staff sessions, networks (women, parents, early careers), HR & People teams.

About GFY

One of the UK’s leading financial education platforms, GFY is a community of 100,000+ and is known for its clear, practical, no-jargon approach to money. Featured on BBC Radio 4 Woman’s Hour, BBC Morning Live, Panorama.

If this sounds useful, you can:

1. Reply to this email

2. Forward this PDF to your People/HR team

3. Book a quick 15-minute chat via Calendly

The rise in Bible sales (yes, really)

We’ve just had Easter Sunday and alongside the usual chocolate and bank holiday scroll, something else is happening. Young people are going to church. A lot more of them.

A new report from The Bible Society suggests Christianity is quietly growing in the UK, especially among Gen Z and particularly young men. Church attendance in this group has quadrupled, with many citing a desire for belonging, a personal connection with God, and mental wellbeing as key reasons.

The data also shows that young churchgoers report higher life satisfaction and lower stress than non-churchgoers.

There are other signs too. UK Bible sales have seen a marked shift:

• In 2019, total UK Bible sales were £2.69 million 

• In 2024, they’ve risen to £5.02 million 

• For context: between 2008 and 2019, sales grew by just £277,000 in total  

• The Good News Bible Youth Edition has nearly doubled its sales since 2021 

And it's not just the UK. In the US, Bible sales are up 22 percent in the past year, with publishers reporting more first-time buyers than ever.

Sources/Read More:

The Lipstick Effect and Other Recession Indicators 

• IMF World Economic Outlook 

• The Guardian

• CNN

Do you need a TV licence

• TV Licensing

• UK Government – TV Licence

• Bloomberg

The rise in Bible sales (yes, really)

• The Bible Society

• Church Times

• Publishers Weekly